For the week of July 12, national RO was down -6% again, just 1% better than our forecast of -7%, again. Covid-19 cases are still surging this week at 465k (+15% versus the previous week). Our RO forecast for next week remains -7% versus 2019.

Market level forecasts improved over last week with mean absolute deviation (MAD) at 3.9% vs 4.1%. We didn’t hit any bullseyes but we missed by only 1% in MIA, PHX and DC. None of our forecasts were off more than 9% (ATL) this week. Thunderstorms and rain expected across much of the eastern US, especially in the Upper Midwest, New England and the Gulf Coast region where a Tropical Depression could form, though unlikely. New Covid-19 cases are still setting records with the highest rates in MIA, PHX and ORL. A decline in the PHX rate was the only bright spot as all other markets saw an increase except NYC which held steady.