For the week of July 5, national RO was down -6%, just 1% better than our forecast of -7%. Covid-19 cases are up sharply again this week at 406k (+23% versus the previous week). Our RO forecast for next week is steady at -7% versus 2019.

Market level forecasts improved over last week with mean absolute deviation (MAD) at 4.1% vs 5.9%. We hit the mark in MIN and NYC and missed by only 1% in HOU and PHI. CLE and PHX surprised on the upside and MIA surprised on the downside. Severe thunderstorms with heavy rain and hail are expected across the Central Plains tonight with temperatures cooling later in the week. New England will also see heavy rain and possible flooding. New Covid-19 cases are still racing higher and Sunbelt cities are getting hit hard with the highest rates in PHX, MIA and ORL followed by LAX, DAL, ATL. Note the “Change” column compares CV Rate vs last week.